Overview
Ireland Price Formation is Bayesian Energy's hourly day-ahead clearing-price model for the all-island Single Electricity Market (SEM), covering the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. It is co-developed with Infranua, drawing on their data and deep expertise in the Irish power system and market. The model solves cost-minimising dispatch of the all-island generation fleet over a full 8,760-hour year as a single copper-plate price zone, with the merit order calibrated to the observed Ember day-ahead price. It is published per year as a re-solvable Convexity database.
Bayesian Energy and Infranua also offer bespoke consulting studies on current and future SEM market pricing, production costs and dispatch.
Model
The SEM is a single copper-plate bus carrying the full Irish fleet of around 360 thermal, wind, solar, hydro, pumped-storage and battery units. Each thermal unit's marginal cost is built from its historical generation and market behaviour, and the merit order is calibrated to the observed Ember day-ahead price. Demand, renewable availability, and fuel and carbon prices come from authoritative public and partner data. Interconnectors to Great Britain (EWIC, Moyle, Greenlink) are pinned to observed flows for the historical year; forward years add the Celtic link to France and the other scheduled cables, with flows solved across coupled GB and FR systems.
Sources
- Prices (calibration target): Ember wholesale electricity prices.
- Demand & market: EirGrid operational data; demand and Irish-market modelling with Infranua.
- Fleet & capacity: SEM Assumption Book and public generation data.
- Weather: ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis.
- Commodities & carbon: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook; IEA STEPS.